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AWS Convergence
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Press ReleasesPress > April 12, 2007 Release As Hurricane Season Approaches, WeatherBug® Predicts Hyperactive Season Hurricane Specialists Discuss Summer Outlook at Energy Trader Seminar in Houston Houston, Tx. – WeatherBug®, the leading provider of live, local weather information, announced today 2007 Hurricane Season predictions as industry experts from the National Weather Service (NWS), Carvill America and AER, Inc. spoke on this summer's outlook at an Energy Trader Seminar in Houston today, hosted by WeatherBug. WeatherBug predicts a resumption of an active hurricane season following a relative lull last year; the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean should expect above average numbers. Specifically, WeatherBug estimates 13-15 named storms, 7-9 of which could reach hurricane status. Three of those hurricanes are predicted to become major, classified as Category III with winds greater than 111 mph. This means the Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) will near 150 percent of normal. On average, there are 9.6 tropical storms per year and only 5.9 become hurricanes. "A hyperactive hurricane season falls in line with the cycle occurring in the Atlantic for the past 10 years," said Michael Whitehead, principal meteorologist for WeatherBug. "While we will see above average numbers, I want to clarify that this year won't be close to that of 2005." There are two main contributors to an active hurricane season: El Nino and water temperature in the Atlantic Ocean. "Historically, both weak and moderate La Nina conditions have resulted in above average hurricane activity especially after an El Nino episode," said Whitehead. "Whatever ENSO phase is in place in the weeks ahead has a direct bearing on the number of Hurricanes that will develop in 2007." In addition, the Tropical North Atlantic continues to be abnormally warm. The minimum threshold to form and sustain tropical storms is only 80 degrees Fahrenheit. WeatherBug's team of meteorologists determined this year's predictions using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the WeatherBug storm tracker, a graphical display tool used to research the strength and track of current and past years tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. Comparable seasons to study were picked on the basis of record activity years in the Atlantic that were each followed by average years, similar to the 2005 and 2006 seasons. That resulted in three seasons: 1936, 1971 and 1998. All three had above normal activity with hyperactivity at 150 percent of normal or higher. They also all occurred during a weak-to-moderate La Nina episode. The 2007 Hurricane Season appears to be parallel with these findings so its forecast should be similar. WeatherBug releases their predictions to clients as early as possible for maximum consideration by the energy markets. The effects of the hurricane season play an important role regarding energy in the United States for the upcoming year. For instance, major storms in the Western Gulf are a threat to oil and gas platforms. "Many storms end up never hitting the continental U.S. so people assume we won't be affected, but that's not the case," said Whitehead. "Our energy sources are still at risk when storms remain off shore, which then results in price increases." About WeatherBug Media Contacts: |
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